The 2025 Coppa Italia final sees two Serie A heavyweights collide at the iconic Stadio Olimpico in Rome. AC Milan, a club steeped in history, will face Bologna, a rising force under the stewardship of Vincenzo Italiano. As both sides aim to lift Italy’s most prestigious domestic cup, we present a comprehensive breakdown of the tactical dynamics, form trends, key players, betting insights, and expected outcomes for this compelling encounter.
A trophy at stake 🏆#SiMuoveLaCittà #WeAreOne pic.twitter.com/0RnmUZJxWi
— Bologna FC 1909 (@BolognaFC1909en) May 12, 2025
A Rivalry Reignited in Rome
While the recent Serie A meeting between these two clubs ended in a commanding 3-1 victory for Milan at the San Siro, finals often bring unpredictability. Bologna may enter as underdogs, but their recent form and resilience make them formidable opponents. Milan, by contrast, arrive with confidence and momentum, having dominated recent matchups against their northern rivals.
This will be the first time these two clubs meet in a Coppa Italia final in over two decades, marking a significant moment in Italian football history. Both clubs have demonstrated tactical growth and squad depth throughout the tournament, and this final promises to be a showcase of elite-level competition.
Recent Form and Performance Metrics
AC Milan – Last 10 Matches
- Wins: 6
- Draws: 1
- Losses: 3
- Average Goals Scored: 2.0
- Average Goals Conceded: 1.2
- Shots on Target per Match: 4.6
- Average Possession: 52.9%
- Average Corners: 4.9
Milan’s offensive prowess has been led by the in-form Christian Pulisic, who has scored five goals in his last ten appearances. Santiago Giménez has also chipped in with three goals, and Rafael Leão has been instrumental both in scoring and creating, with three assists to his name.
Despite some inconsistencies in defense, the Rossoneri remain a high-octane team capable of scoring in bursts, often taking control in the second half through increased tempo and pressing.
Bologna – Last 10 Matches
- Wins: 5
- Draws: 3
- Losses: 2
- Average Goals Scored: 1.4
- Average Goals Conceded: 0.9
- Shots on Target per Match: 4.1
- Average Possession: 60.1%
- Average Corners: 5.5
Bologna’s defensive organization has been their key strength. Lukasz Skorupski has kept three clean sheets in this period, and the midfield duo of Remo Freuler and Lewis Ferguson have controlled games with composure. Offensively, Riccardo Orsolini stands out with six goals, often providing a decisive spark in tight contests.
However, their difficulty in breaking down well-organized defenses remains a concern. While they dominate possession, they lack Milan’s ruthlessness in the final third.
Coppa Italia Road to the Final
AC Milan:
- Quarter-Final: 2-0 vs Roma
- Semi-Final: 4-1 aggregate vs Inter Milan
Bologna:
- Quarter-Final: 3-0 vs Fiorentina
- Semi-Final: 5-1 aggregate vs Empoli
Milan’s route has seen them defeat stronger opposition. Their 4-1 demolition of Inter in the semifinals was a tactical masterclass, blending aggression and control. Bologna, meanwhile, dispatched Fiorentina and Empoli with authority, showcasing their ability to handle pressure and capitalize on defensive mistakes.
AC Milan vs Bologna Predicted Starting XIs
AC Milan (4-4-2):
- Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
- Defenders: Fikayo Tomori, Matteo Gabbia, Strahinja Pavlović, Alex Jiménez
- Midfielders: Youssouf Fofana, Tijjani Reijnders, Theo Hernández, Christian Pulisic
- Forwards: Rafael Leão, Santiago Giménez
This setup allows Milan to transition quickly from defense to attack. Theo Hernández often acts as a pseudo-winger, providing overloads on the left. Pulisic drifts centrally to link up play, while Giménez serves as the target man.
Bologna (4-2-3-1):
- Goalkeeper: Łukasz Skorupski
- Defenders: Davide Calabria, Sam Beukema, Jhon Lucumí, Juan Miranda
- Midfielders: Remo Freuler, Lewis Ferguson
- Attacking Midfielders: Riccardo Orsolini, Jens Odgaard, Nicolò Cambiaghi
- Striker: Santiago Castro
Bologna aim to control the midfield and isolate Orsolini and Cambiaghi in one-on-one situations. Their fluidity across the attacking line allows them to pull defenders out of position, though the lack of a clinical finisher may hinder their efforts in front of goal.
Adding the finishing touches to our Final prep 💪#MilanBologna #CoppaItaliaFrecciarossa #SempreMilan
— AC Milan (@acmilan) May 13, 2025
Tactical Battles to Watch
Leão vs Calabria
Rafael Leão’s speed and trickery pose a direct threat to Davide Calabria. If Bologna cannot contain Milan’s left flank, they will likely concede space and opportunities.
Giménez vs Beukema & Lucumí
The Mexican striker has a keen eye for positioning and poaching chances. Bologna’s central defense must remain compact and aware, particularly on set pieces.
Orsolini vs Hernández
Orsolini’s creativity will be tested against the athleticism and forward thrust of Theo Hernández. This matchup will decide much of Bologna’s attacking rhythm.
Midfield Dynamics: Fofana vs Ferguson
Fofana’s physical presence will be crucial in disrupting Bologna’s passing game, while Ferguson will aim to dictate tempo. Whoever wins this midfield clash may swing momentum in their team’s favor.
Historical Context & Motivation
For AC Milan, the Coppa Italia has been elusive in recent years. Winning this trophy would not only add silverware to Pioli’s tenure but also serve as a springboard for European campaigns. The players are motivated to deliver for a club that demands success.
Bologna, on the other hand, are chasing their first major trophy in decades. Reaching this stage reflects the progress under Italiano, and a victory would cement their resurgence in Italian football.
AC Milan vs Bologna Betting Markets & Tips
Milan Draw No Bet – Odds: 1.73
Milan’s recent dominance in H2H encounters, coupled with their ability to manage big games, makes this a solid value pick.
Both Teams to Score – Yes – Odds: 1.80
Both sides possess attacking talent capable of finding the net, even if defenses are largely stable.
Correct Score Prediction – Milan 2-1 Bologna – Odds: 8.50
A tight but ultimately decisive victory for Milan seems likely, especially considering Bologna’s struggles against top-tier opposition.
Final Prediction
AC Milan possess superior quality in attack, better depth on the bench, and a proven record in clutch matches. Bologna have improved dramatically and will not make it easy, but their occasional bluntness in the final third could be their undoing. Expect a close contest, with Milan asserting their authority in key moments.
Final Score Prediction: AC Milan 2 – 1 Bologna
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The Coach’s mindset ahead of the big night 🔴⚫#MilanBologna #CoppaItaliaFrecciarossa #SempreMilan pic.twitter.com/UTNt3KPKCO
— AC Milan (@acmilan) May 13, 2025
Conclusion
The 2025 Coppa Italia final brings together two contrasting philosophies: Milan’s speed and clinical execution versus Bologna’s structured build-up and defensive organization. While Bologna have the tactical tools to make this a competitive match, the big-match experience, individual brilliance, and recent form give AC Milan the edge.
Bettors and fans alike should prepare for a tightly fought battle where margins will be slim and moments of brilliance will decide the outcome. Whether it’s Leão burning down the flank or Orsolini unlocking a tight defense, the final promises high drama, tactical intrigue, and a memorable conclusion to Italy’s premier cup competition.
